Tracking progress in the first year of the historic California-Africa Climate and Economic Partnership
California and Africa have set the blueprint for a new model of international climate cooperation—a unique climate and economic partnership with Kenya and Nigeria delivering policy certainty, affordable technology and unlocking catalytic capital. As part of this effort, the Global South Center at the UC Davis Institute of Transportation Studies (ITS-Davis), serving as the Secretariat for the partnership, collaborated with the California State Transportation Agency and the Bay Area Council to host the 2nd California-Africa Climate and Economic Forum (CACEF), convening leaders across government, industry and research from California, Kenya, Nigeria and other African countries.
The 2026 Forum reinforced the partnership's core proposition: climate and energy transitions are an opportunity to revitalize economic growth. Discussions focused on turning shared priorities into investment-ready solutions through technical exchange, capacity building and institutional collaboration.
The partnership functions as a multi-year delivery mechanism for policy, technology and finance across clean transportation, energy, climate-smart agriculture, digital innovation, and trade. The theory of change is straightforward: policy certainty creates markets; markets drive innovation and de-risk private capital.
By 2040, Africa’s population is projected to exceed 2.1 billion, with the continent expected to have the world’s largest workforce. Africa’s GDP has doubled to USD 3 trillion in just 14 years, and will surpass USD 6.5 trillion within the next decade. This growth trajectory creates a significant opportunity, but the window for climate-aligned investment is narrow. Unmanaged climate impacts could erode up to 20% of Africa's GDP by 2050, and the choices made this decade will determine whether the continent locks in high-carbon systems or builds resilient, future-ready economies. Delivering Africa’s climate commitments will require mobilizing USD 2.8 trillion by 2030, which also reflects the scale of the investment opportunity.
Tracking Progress
1. Powering Clean Road Transportation
Transport infrastructure alone requires unlocking nearly USD 290 billion in annual investment opportunities by the end of the decade, while critical mineral processing could increase the value of Africa’s minerals market by 75% to USD 120 billion by 2040, particularly as global EV and battery value chains expand. Africa's net-zero path will create demand for 6.8 million EVs by 2040—a $161B market across two-wheelers, cars, trucks, and buses. Kenya achieved 14% EV sales share (2025) for two-wheelers, ahead of large markets like India and Indonesia. Ethiopia banned the import of fossil-fuel vehicles in 2025 while Nigeria is incentivizing EVs through lower import duties.
At an average of 15 years, Africa remains the world's largest used vehicle market, importing over 1.1 million used fossil-fuel powered cars. While affordable, they are highly polluting and fuel-inefficient, worsening both energy security risks and GHG emissions. Meanwhile, Africa's logistics market is set to double to $447 billion by 2029, driven by an estimated 28% rise in intra-African trade under AfCFTA, expanding e-commerce, and major infrastructure projects.
In November 2025, the ITS-Davis was formalized as Technical Advisor on electric mobility to Kenya's State Department of Transport. In February 2026, ITS-Davis along with Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), World Bank and the UK Government, delivered the launch of the National E-mobility Policy of Kenya.
UC Davis has also deepened private-sector engagement with Uber (electric boda-boda taxi operations in Kenya) and Rivian (R1T EV safari pilot with the Maasai Wilderness Conservation Trust)—leveraging private sector action to scale investment pathways in e-mobility across Africa.
A visit to ITS-Davis by Kenya's Presidential Climate Envoy in April 2025 and a meeting with the Kenyan President in August 2025 catalyzed plans for a pan-African counterpart: the Centre of Excellence on Sustainable Transportation for Africa, which will be based in Nairobi.
2. Safe and Clean Skies
Kenya and Nigeria rank as San Francisco International Airport’s (SFO) 4th and 5th largest African markets by passenger demand, respectively. Expanding connectivity between California and Africa will remain a key driver of trade, investment, tourism and innovation exchange.
In a unique effort, ITS-Davis brought together the leadership of SFO and Kenya Airways, laying the groundwork for long-term collaboration on aviation connectivity and sustainability, an opportunity reinforced by Kenya’s airport expansion plans, with Jomo Kenyatta International Airport expected to grow from 7.5M passengers today to 22M by 2045.
With the growth in aviation, both intra-Africa and inter-continental travel, Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) emerged as a key priority area for both regions. Kenya has recently passed legislation requiring all airlines landing and departing from Jomo Kenyatta International Airport to report the share of SAF that was carried on all flights.
Kenya Airways became the first African carrier to fly a long-haul intercontinental route using a 2% SAF blend with an ambition to raise SAF use to 10% by 2030. Nigeria’s expanding refining ecosystem creates a complementary supply-side opportunity for the SAF transition. SFO offers a strong model for collaboration through its experience in sustainable airport operations and SAF market development, including its 2030 goals for net zero energy facilities. A key takeaway was that SAF must be understood within the wider energy system, where electrification of other sectors can help allocate limited biomass and low-carbon resources for harder-to-electrify segments such as aviation and maritime.
3. Clean Ports and Green ‘Trade’ Corridors
Maritime and port decarbonization emerged as another low-hanging opportunity, with California exporting USD 622M to Sub-Saharan Africa in 2025. As the Ports of Mombasa and Lagos expand, there is an opportunity to establish green ‘trade’ corridors, drawing on California’s clean ports program experience including shore power, electrified port equipment, zero emission drayage trucks and low carbon fuels.
4. Clean Energy and Universal Energy Access
Over 600M Africans lack reliable electricity amid rapid urbanization and industrialization, so reliable, affordable clean power is central to both development and decarbonization. With more than 60% of the world’s solar potential, Africa has an estimated USD 70 billion annual opportunity to develop renewable energy infrastructure.
In January 2026, ITS Davis led a knowledge exchange visit for energy sector professionals from Kenya’s Energy Regulator (EPRA) to learn from California’s experience with battery energy storage deployment, energy regulatory frameworks and grid integration. The Secretariat also supported two California companies – Beam Global (off-grid solar EV charging solutions for African markets), and, Hago Energetics (low-carbon hydrogen for Nigeria’s methane reduction and waste-to-value goals). Further, ITS-Davis also facilitated strategic discussions with the Oppenheimer Project’s interest in regional nuclear cooperation frameworks for long-term energy security.
5. Agriculture and Community Development
Experts emphasized connections between California’s healthy soils, water efficiency and farm-to-school work and African experiences around smallholder resilience, urban farming, food access, farmer-to-farmer learning, moringa research, biofertilizers and cross-continental university collaboration.
In Nairobi, the Human Needs Project’s Kibera Centre shows how essential services, skill development and urban farming can be integrated into a locally managed community resilience model. The San Francisco Exploratorium’s partnership with Nemayiana in Nairobi highlights another form of collaboration, focused on strengthening STEM learning outcomes for youth through hands-on science education, creativity, and innovation.
Africa holds 65% of the world’s remaining uncultivated arable land—its food and agribusiness market could grow from $280 billion today to $1 trillion by 2030. UC Davis, ranked among the world’s foremost agricultural universities, has identified country-specific priorities including drought resilience, livestock feed and pasture systems, dryland farming, reduced dependence on synthetic fertilizers and increasing development of biofertilizers, agro-processing, and low-carbon irrigation. These will enhance resilience for climate-sensitive export crops such as tea and coffee in Kenya, and ensure productive staple crop systems for rice, maize and cassava in Nigeria. Looking ahead, the proposed UC Davis Field Station for Agricultural Innovation in western Kenya aims to provide a solutions platform expanding education, research, training, and private-sector engagement for climate-smart agriculture and food-system resilience.
Building Architecture for Long-term Growth
Situating the California-Africa Climate and Economic Partnership Hub within the Global South Center at UC Davis will help ensure long-term institutional continuity, coordination and follow-through across the identified areas of cooperation, and a pipeline of new projects responsive to evolving African priorities.
The Hub, with staff located in both California and Africa, will also support university-to-university partnerships that build technical and entrepreneurial capacity among African youth through targeted exchange programs in areas such as AI, energy-efficient digital infrastructure, and business innovation. Private-sector engagement led by the Bay Area Council will remain central to the partnership, helping connect African and Californian industries and innovation ecosystems.
Anchoring the Partnership in Shared Priorities
Chancellor Gary S. May positioned UC Davis as a steady academic partner supporting this partnership and highlighted the role of the University, particularly the Global South Center, in helping connect research, policy collaboration and institutional engagement across transportation, agriculture, education and innovation.
Ambassador Ali Mohamed, Kenya’s Special Envoy for Climate Change, noted that the partnership has taken practical shape over the past year, with Kenya advancing its national e-mobility policy with support from UC Davis. He also emphasized the complementary strengths that make this partnership meaningful, with “California bringing technology, research depth, capital and a culture of innovation, and Kenya bringing renewable energy resources, an entrepreneurial workforce, a fast-growing innovation ecosystem and strategic access to East African markets.”
Omotenioye Majekodunmi, Director General of Nigeria’s National Council on Climate Change, similarly framed the low-carbon transition as an economic opportunity. Her remarks underscored the “role of collaboration in unlocking technology, strengthening institutions, deepening policy coherence and mobilizing investment.” Importantly, she positioned the partnership as part of a wider shift in Global North-Global South cooperation that is grounded in shared value, responsibility and prosperity.
Aakansha Jain is Senior Researcher at the Global South Center for Clean Transportation at ITS-Davis
Aditya Ramji is Director of the Global South Center for Clean Transportation
Jason Hill is Senior Researcher at the Global South Center for Clean Transportation