Time

1:40pm - 3:00pm

Location

1605 Tilia, Room 1103, West Village

Speaker(s)

Abstract

The electrification of transport systems requires a change in the composition of the vehicle fleet towards higher shares of electric vehicles. However, a successful transition depends on many factors, of which some relate to purchase prices and vehicle features, while others relate to technology and charging infrastructure. This seminar discusses electric vehicle demand in Denmark, focusing on recent analyses of the transition towards plug-in electric vehicles. The primary study uses data from a large representative Danish stated choice survey. Based on these data, we estimate a mixed logit model that allows for correlated random effects across fuel types and car segments as well as systematic heterogeneity. The results show that correlation and substitution indeed go across these dimensions. Willingness-to-pay (WTP) measures are estimated for a variety of attributes. These suggest that the WTP for range varies with fuel types, that the possibility for home charging is highly valued, and that CO2 is a significant concern among individuals in the sample. Finally, a calibrated version of the model is used to assess price and driving range sensitivities, showing that demand is more sensitive to price changes.

Besides presenting these results, I will also discuss the PEV transition in Denmark and how the modelling results have been used for policy analysis.

Biographical Sketch

Stefan E. Mabit is Associate Professor in the Division for Transport at the Technical University of Denmark (DTU). He holds an MSc in Mathematics from the University of Copenhagen and a PhD in transportation science from DTU from 2008. His research interests include travel behavior, demand modeling, demand for vehicles and adaption of electric vehicles, biking, car sharing, choice modeling, and statistics. For the period January to July 2022, he is a Fulbright visiting scholar at the Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.