June 1, 2018

Close Enough? Considerations in evaluating transportation demand forecasts

Time

1:40pm - 3:00pm

Location

1605 Tilia, Room 1103, West Village

Speaker(s)

Carole Turley Voulgaris, Assistant Professor, Civil & Environmental Engineering, California Polytechnic State University

Abstract

Inaccuracy and bias in demand forecasts for transportation infrastructure projects have been well-documented and represent an obstacle to performance-based planning and programming. However, efforts to improve forecasting practice require clear answers to a number of open questions: Are there forecast characteristics in addition to accuracy that should also be maximized? How should forecast accuracy be measured? When is the right time to observe transportation demand for comparison to demand forecasts? Dr. Voulgaris presents a framework for evaluating forecast accuracy and shares the results of qualitative and quantitative research that can inform clearer evaluation of transportation forecasts.

Biographical Sketch

Carole Turley Voulgaris is an assistant professor of sustainable transportation engineering at Cal Poly San Luis Obispo. She holds a PhD in Urban Planning from UCLA, an MBA from the University of Notre Dame, and bachelor’s and master’s degrees in Civil and Environmental Engineering from Brigham Young University. She has worked as transportation engineer in both the public and private sectors and she is a licensed professional engineer in Washington State. Her research interests are in travel behavior, forecasting, transportation finance, and institutional decision making.