March 2, 2012

Planning Constrained Destination Choice in the ADAPTS Activity-Based Model

Speaker(s)

Dr. Joshua A. Auld, Postdoctoral Research Associate, Urban Transportation Center, University of Illinois at Chicago, Winner of the 2011 TRB Kitamura Paper Award

Abstract

This seminar will present the Agent-based Dynamic Activity Planning and Travel Scheduling (ADAPTS) model framework recently which has recently been developed. This model focuses on simulating the dynamics of the underlying planning processes behind daily activity scheduling. As the model focuses on the dynamics of activity scheduling formation, new scheduling constraints are introduced to the model, referred to as planning constraints, that depend on the order in which activities enter the daily plan. This concept is demonstrated by focusing on a destination choice model estimated from recent Chicago survey data coupled with a model of the timing of activity planning decisions. The travel survey data is used to estimate both a standard multinomial logit destination choice model, and a conditional choice model under certain assumptions about the activity planning process, where the choice set is constrained by what has already been planned in the schedule. The performance of each model is evaluated and the impact of using the planning-constrained model in place of the standard model on the accuracy of the results is evaluated. The use of a model where the destination choices are conditioned on what was previously planned in each activity-travel schedule improves the accuracy of the model results. This is true in terms of correctly predicted location choices and overall trip length distributions, with much more realistic distributions observed when destination decisions are constrained.

Biographical Sketch

Dr. Auld is a Postdoctoral Researcher in the department of Urban Planning and Policy at the University of Illinois at Chicago (UIC) and at the Transportation Research and Analysis Computing Center (TRACC) at Argonne National Laboratory. His primary research interest is in the field of travel demand modeling and travel behavior analysis, specifically focusing on activity-based modeling approaches and integrated modeling.  He has published 15 peer-reviewed journal articles and book chapters and over 20 conference presentations on topics such as travel planning behavior, activity scheduling processes and survey design among others. He received his B.S. from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (UIUC) in 2002 and his M.S. from UIC in 2007 and PhD from UIC in 2011.