A dramatic global shift to increased cycling and electric biking, or e-biking, could cut energy use and carbon dioxide emissions from urban transport by up to 10 percent by 2050 compared to current estimates, while saving society nearly $25 trillion. That is according to a report by the University of California, Davis, and the New York-based Institute for Transportation & Development Policy.

The report, “A Global High Shift Cycling Scenario,” takes a comprehensive look at the future of cycling for urban transportation.

“This is the first report that quantifies the potential carbon dioxide and cost savings associated with a worldwide shift toward much greater use of cycling in urban areas,” said report co-author Lew Fulton, co-director of the STEPS Program within the Institute of Transportation Studies at UC Davis. “The estimated impacts surprised me because they are so large. The costs saved in lower energy use and reducing the need for car travel, new roads, and parking lots through 2050 are substantial.”

Cycling’s enormous potential

Currently, cycling accounts for about 6 percent of urban trips worldwide, more than half of which occurs in China, Japan and a few European countries, like the Netherlands and Denmark. In the United States and Canada, only 1 percent of urban trips are by bicycle.

According to the study, the right mix of investments and public policies can bring bikes and e-bikes to cover up to 14 percent of urban miles traveled by 2050 — ranging from about 25 percent in the Netherlands and China to about 7 percent in the U.S. and Canada. The potential is enormous when considering that typically more than half of all urban trips worldwide are less than 6 miles and potentially could be done by bike.

“This study shows the profound impact that cycling can have in developing countries like India and China, where much of the infrastructure has yet to be built,” said co-author Jacob Mason, transport research and evaluation manager for the Institute for Transportation & Development Policy. “Building cities for cycling will not only lead to cleaner air and safer streets — it will save people and governments a substantial amount of money, which can be spent on other things. That’s smart urban policy.’

A pro-cycling culture in Davis

Davis, California, home to UC Davis, has witnessed the health, economic and environmental benefits of creating a bicycle-friendly culture:

• More than 20 percent of employed Davis residents usually commute by bicycle, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
• 46 percent of UC Davis students and employees travel to campus by bicycle, while 7 percent walk or skate, according to the 2015 UC Davis Campus Travel Survey, conducted by UC Davis Transportation Services and the Sustainable Transportation Center, which is part of the Institute of Transportation Studies at UC Davis.

The city of Davis also created the nation’s first bike lane, first citywide system of bike paths, and installed the country’s first bicycle signal heads on traffic lights.

Both the town and university have received widespread acclaim for their efforts. The League of American Bicyclists named UC Davis a Platinum-level Bicycle Friendly University and the city of Davis a Platinum-level Bicycle Friendly Community.

“This represents what’s possible by building excellent cycling infrastructure, focusing on safety, and generally building a pro-cycling culture,” said Susan Handy, who is not a study co-author but is director of the National Center for Sustainable Transportation at UC Davis and a professor of environmental science and policy. “Most cities around the world should be able to approach the kinds of bicycling rates we enjoy in Davis, as well as those achieved by so many in Europe, China and Japan.”

The research was supported by the Union Cycliste Internationale, the European Cyclists’ Federation, and the Bicycle Suppliers Association.

Additional information:

• Read the report.
• Download infographics.
• Link to posting at UC Davis

For Ben Sharpe—Ph.D. in Civil & Environmental Engineering, UC Davis, 2013—the focus is global.

As a senior researcher for the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT), Sharpe and his team actively study the impacts of heavy-duty vehicles for the governments of countries around the world, in particular: China, Brazil, Mexico, the European Union, the United States, and, most recently, India. With offices in San Francisco, Washington, D.C., and Berlin, the widely respected, independent, non-profit ICCT provides “first-rate, unbiased research and technical and scientific analysis to environmental regulators.”

Although Sharpe has been a senior researcher for only three years, his tenure at the ICCT spans more than six; he started his involvement with the council while still pursuing his Civil Engineering doctorate with a transportation focus at ITS-Davis. Not surprisingly, Sharpe credits a lot of his success in the position with the knowledge and connections he made through his UC Davis transportation graduate program. “My first contact with ICCT was back in 2007. I was super lucky to work with [ITS-Davis Researcher and Energy Efficiency Center Associate Director] Alan Meier. He was with the International Energy Agency for a number of years and knew that I had a strong interest in heavy-duty vehicle efficiency: As part of his class we had done some work looking at tractor-trailer operations in the U.S. Well, IEA was doing a workshop in Paris in 2007 to look at regulation of heavy-duty vehicle efficiency, and Alan was instrumental in getting me some funding and a formal invitation to attend that workshop.”

Now a few years into his career, Sharpe is currently tackling issues involving heavy-duty vehicle efficiency in a number of different countries and regions. Recently, Sharpe and his team authored numerous papers answering technical questions for regulatory design in India and also held a workshop in Delhi in April to foster discussions. His team offers policy and technical recommendations to governments around the world who have various levels of experience in traversing through contemporary transportation issues.

“The current mode that we are in is following need,” he said. “And one of the biggest needs right now in terms of fuel efficiency regulatory development for heavy-duty vehicle is in India.”

Sharpe now lives in Sacramento with his family, commuting to his office in San Francisco via the train a few times a week. As he reflects back, Sharpe notes the lasting impacts of his time at ITS-Davis.

“I really could not have asked for better training for the field I am in now. The research at ITS-Davis is extremely aligned with what we do here at the ICCT,” he said. “In terms of the coursework, getting all the exposure to analytical tools, models, and technical jargon—my experience at ITS was terrific. I could not have envisioned a better segue to the ICCT.”

The #AggiesAtWork series is done in partnership with the UC Davis Cal Aggie Alumni Association.

View other AggiesAtWork stories:

• UC Davis Transportation Alums: Changing California, Changing the World
  
• Nevada Department of Transportation’s Sondra Rosenberg: Shaping Policies in the Public Sphere
• For MTC’s David Ory, People & Community are Key to Transportation Planning

Can the UC Davis campus achieve the goal of zero net energy by 2025?

The students enrolled in the class A Path to Zero Net Energy: A Hands-on Approach are doing their part to foster significant energy improvements here at UC Davis. Taught by Program for International Energy Technologies (PIET) and D-Lab Director Kurt Kornbluth, the Zero Net Energy (ZNE) class helps students gain valuable hands-on energy efficiency experience, both in the lab and at various sites on campus. The class is sponsored by the UC Davis Facilities Management Energy Conservation Office, which develops and implements energy projects and initiatives across the campus to help the university reach its energy and climate goals.

Over the duration of the course, student groups work on client-based energy projects, ranging from audits, behavioral studies, energy modeling, and more. These studies aim to inform decisions regarding energy efficiency, consumption, and supply in UC Davis, all building toward campus zero-net energy and carbon neutrality.

A research showcase held in June brought together all of the student groups from Professor Kornbluth’s ZNE class to spotlight the students’ innovative work. Many projects were highlighted:  a campus facility and infrastructure audit of thermoelectric heat recovery opportunities, an energy assessment of the Davis Tri-Cooperatives (energy efficient living on campus), a behavioral study on how UC Davis freshmen utilize the thermostat in the dorms, and the feasibility of hydropower on farms, among others.

One group presenting at the showcase provided energy modeling for the UC Davis Solar Decathlon House for migrant farmworkers and other low-income communities. UC Davis was selected for the Department of Energy’s 2015 Solar Decathlon contest, a biannual contest in which universities are challenged to design, build, and operate solar-powered homes that are cost-effective, energy-efficient, and attractive. The ZNE class team digitally modeled the home in order to provide a comprehensive energy analysis of materials, appliances, and climate conditions of the home. This data will help the UC Davis team make better informed decisions about the building design leading up to the competition in October.

Winning recognition as the top project in the spring quarter ZNE class was, “Charging into the Future: An economic and GHG analysis of fleet conversion to electric buses.” For this project, students worked with the UC Davis public transit program Unitrans on the feasibility of transitioning the current compressed natural gas CNG buses to electric buses. Partnering with the Unitrans staff, students Colin Mickle, Jessica Siegel and Katrina Sutton found that by replacing 13 traditional (CNG) buses with EVs, they could reduce emissions by 540 metric tons of C02e per year. The study was comprehensive, analyzing economics (including cost/benefit, GHG emissions, technology review, and route analysis). Although their class obligations are finished, the students are continuing to follow up with Unitrans with the goal of making EV buses at UC Davis a reality.

The Zero Net Energy class is just one of the many ways that students at UC Davis are getting hands-on experience making impactful change in a real world setting. By working together with their colleagues and professors in a multi-disciplinary program, students learn how zero-net energy buildings and communities are constructed—through field trips, lectures, and direct engagement with the transportation and energy programs on campus.

Photo caption: Speaking at the June ZNE research showcase was Kurt Kornbluth, Adjunct Assistant Professor, Biological and Agricultural Engineering.

Learn more about the UC Davis Energy Efficiency Center.

Will the federal Clean Power Plan (CPP) facilitate the introduction of comprehensive carbon pricing in Pacific Coast states, or hinder it?

The UC Davis Policy Institute for Energy, Environment and the Economy has issued a report examining how the pending U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s CPP could impact Western carbon pricing and state and regional greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction strategies. The report summarizes the findings of a workshop hosted last November by the Policy Institute, in conjunction with non-governmental organizations (NGOs) Next 10 and Resources for the Future.

CPP represents a large-scale national effort to reduce carbon emissions through the regulation of GHG emissions from power plants.  (The plan gives states flexibility for meeting a 30% reduction in GHG from 2005 levels at existing power plants by 2030.) The federal plan could have effects on states with preexisting GHG limiting initiatives already in place: California for example, utilizes an emissions cap-and-trade system.

The fall 2014 workshop focused on the interactions between the CPP and preexisting policies – particularly carbon pricing efforts by the Pacific Coast Climate Alliance, comprised of  U.S. states California, Washington, Oregon—and British Columbia. More than 38participants attended the workshop, including regional EPA officials, regulators from Washington, Oregon, California, and Nevada, academics, and NGO representatives.

A report summarizes the findings from the workshop:  “State and Regional Comprehensive Carbon Pricing and Greenhouse Gas Regulation in the Power Sector under EPA’s Clean Power Plan.”

James Bushnell acting director of the UC Davis Policy Institute and co-author of the workshop report stressed the importance of state partnerships. “Multi-state cooperation is attractive because it brings down costs to business as well as consumers, serves to prevent the reshuffling of electricity generation to states with higher emissions limits, increases the reliability of the grid and simplifies compliance,” said Bushnell.

Although a full consensus was not reached during the conference, the attendees agreed that the EPA and Pacific Coast states will need to work together to ensure that the CPP will contribute to, and not impede, the implementation of Western carbon pricing policies. A key theme discussed was the need for regulatory clarity when the CPP rules are finalized, expected in August 2015.

Reflecting the comments of other conference participants, report co-author Dallas Burtraw, senior fellow at Resources for the Future, said he looks forward to “greater regulatory certainty as the [plan] is finalized, on issues including how new fossil sources of generation will be treated, how megawatt hours of generation should be calculated, and the best approach to translating-carbon-intensity numbers into mass of emissions totals.”

The CPP creates coordinated nation-wide efforts to reduce GHG emissions. The plan is designed to cut carbon pollution specifically from the electricity sector and is predicted to cut air pollution by more than 25 percent.

“The Clean Power Plan could facilitate state and regional efforts to develop comprehensive climate policies including carbon pricing,” said F. Noel Perry, businessman and founder of Next 10, in a news release accompanying the report. “However, lack of foresight and certain regulatory frameworks could actually limit what states and regions can achieve—thoughtful implementation and coordination are key.”

 

Big congratulations to our newest M.S. and Ph.D. graduates, honored in this year’s commencement!

These distinguished graduates have earned M.S. and Ph.D. degrees in Civil and Environmental Engineering and Transportation Technology and Policy. During their time at UC Davis, they have published research on topics ranging from car dealers and the plug-in electric vehicle market to commute behavior changes, taxicab transportation in Colombia, and much more.

ITS-Davis seeks to produce thoughtful and educated leaders ready to make an impact on transportation and energy research and policy. ITS-Davis Director Dan Sperling said: “Our most notable and enduring accomplishment is the nurturing and training of incredibly passionate and accomplished graduate students. To this highly talented 2015 class of students I simply say, the future is in good hands—your own.”

Students who seek degrees with ITS-Davis come from all over the world to work with renowned professors. Yuche Chen (pictured, top left), who earned his Ph.D. in Civil and Environmental Engineering said that “UC Davis provided a solid foundation and network for me to get involved in the whole research community. There’s no better place to pursue a career in transportation, energy, and environmental analysis.” Chen is taking a position as a research engineer at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s Hydrogen Technologies and Systems Center in Golden, Colorado. “This is the biggest achievement of my life. I’m speechless,” said TTP Ph.D. graduate Alvaro Valencia Rodriguez. After graduation, he hopes to become a professor at Andes University in his home country of Colombia.

The UC Davis Institute of Transportation Studies is looking for talented individuals interested in leading the future of sustainable transportation.  ITS-Davis offers a unique program in Transportation Technology and Policy, and engages with graduate students in Civil and Environmental Engineering, Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, and other related departments. Read all about graduate transportation education at UC Davis and watch a short video about the program by clicking here.

Photo: (Left to right) Top – Yuche Chen, Eric Cahill, Prof. John Harvey, Kevin Fang, Wei Ji, Abdulkadir Bedir, Susan Pike, Cheng Zhuo. Bottom – Prof. Yue Yue Fan, Prof. Alissa Kendall, Juhong Yuan, Prof. Susan Handy, Duaa Gettani, Alvaro Valencia Rodriguez, Bo Wu. Photo Credit: Gene Ang

Federal agency climate leader and UC Davis alumnus Dr. Katharine (Kit) Batten has been named the new executive director of the UC Davis Policy Institute for Energy, Environment and the Economy.

The Policy Institute leverages university expertise to inform energy, climate and transportation policies, bringing together scientific researchers and decision-makers.

 “Kit Batten is an extraordinary leader with a great ability to connect science and policy through fact-based research,” said Director Dan Sperling of the UC Davis Institute of Transportation Studies. “She has the ideal background to take the Policy Institute to the next level: strong research skills, extensive policy experience, and a commitment to leveraging university research to inform decision making.  Plus she has a strong connection to UC Davis and California.”

In 2011, Batten was appointed by President Barack Obama to serve as global climate change coordinator, responsible for an annual budget of approximately $350 million in worldwide climate change mitigation and adaptation projects for the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). A Washington, D.C.-based U.S. federal government agency created by President John F. Kennedy, USAID works to end extreme global poverty and enable resilient, democratic societies to realize their potential.

“My passion is to ensure that the best available science and research influences public policy, and it has driven my career,” said Batten.  “I am honored to return to UC Davis after a decade of policy making in Washington, DC to connect the cutting-edge research conducted on campus to state, federal and international policy.”

Prior to USAID, Batten served as a senior science and policy fellow and program director at the H. John Heinz III center for Science, Economics and the Environment; as a science advisor to the deputy secretary of the U.S. Department of the Interior; and as senior fellow/managing director for energy and environmental policy at the Center for American Progress. She also held positions in the offices of Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) and Senator Joseph Lieberman (I-CT). Batten earned a bachelor degree in chemistry from Oberlin College and masters and doctoral degrees in ecology from UC Davis.

In California, the West, and nationally, the Policy Institute plays a leading role in leveraging university expertise to inform energy, climate, and transportation policies—acting as a bridge between scientific researchers and decision-makers. The Policy Institute engages in all aspects of the policy process: understanding the needs of policymakers to inform research questions and projects, proactively delivering accessible and timely research findings to legislative and administrative leadership and staff, and undertaking analysis and evaluation to improve existing policies.

Policy Institute Acting Director James Bushnell, Associate Professor of Economics at UC Davis, applauded Batten’s appointment.

 “The Policy Institute serves a unique and needed role provided by few other organizations,” said Bushnell. “Kit is well versed at helping scientists convey their research findings to better inform lawmakers and the media. I can’t think of any more capable hands than Kit’s to help the Policy Institute continue to evolve and grow in stature and influence.”

Now in its fourth year, the Policy Institute will be led by Bushnell until September 1, when Batten takes the helm as executive director.

Report on Overcoming Barriers to EV Deployment

A three-year, congressionally mandated study sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy has found that “vehicle cost, current battery technology, and inadequate consumer knowledge are some of the barriers preventing widespread adoption of plug-in electric vehicles.”

The final report was issued on April 22, 2015 by the National Research Council, one of four institutions that make up the National Academies. Sitting on the 15-member council committee that issued the report was Tom Turrentine, Director of the UC Davis Plug-in Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Research Center.

“The PH&EV Research Center focuses on the role of consumer knowledge in expanding the market for EVs,” said Turrentine. “This committee also came to the consensus that consumer knowledge is critical for widespread adoption of plug-in vehicles,” he noted.

Turrentine emphasized that “UC Davis will continue our research on consumer knowledge, attributes and motivation. Consumer-focused tools, like the UC Davis-developed EV Explorer, are one way that we can help consumers better understand the technology and how an electric vehicle can benefit them.”

To access the National Academies press release and a pre-publication copy of the full report, “Overcoming Barriers to Deployment of Plug-in Electric Vehicles,” click here.

Former California state legislator Nancy Skinner is bringing her expertise on energy and climate policy to UC Davis, working with energy, transportation, and policy centers in West Village.

The three-term state assemblymember will serve as a senior policy fellow for the UC energy and transportation programs, including the Energy Efficiency Center, Institute of Transportation Studies, and the Policy Institute for Energy, Environment and the Economy.

Skinner will offer to UC Davis her keen insights on how scientific research can help to better inform governmental actions.

“My time in local and state government demonstrated to me how vital it is for public policy to be grounded in science,” said Skinner. “I’m delighted to be at UC Davis, both to learn firsthand from researchers and to identify opportunities to communicate that research clearly to lawmakers and regulators, so that the excellent work being done here can have a bigger impact in the policy arena.”

From local to state government, Skinner said the “trajectory” of her career has had a strong focus on societal sustainability, pollution reduction, clean energy commercialization, and climate action.

She began her public service in 1984 as the first and only UC Berkeley student to be elected to the Berkeley City Council. As a councilmember from 1984-92, Skinner established the Berkeley Energy Services Corporation and the city’s commercial and residential energy upgrade ordinances. In 1990, she co-founded ICLEI-Local Governments for Sustainability, the leading global network devoted to local governments engaged in sustainability, climate protection, and clean energy initiatives. She served as executive director of the organization’s U.S. office and international director of ICLEI Cities for Climate Protection. She is a co-producer of the first carbon counting tool to help cities conduct emissions inventories and coordinated the 2005 Climate Summit, which helped facilitate the signing of California’s Global Warming Solutions Act.

Over the course of her legislative career representing the East Bay’s 15^th District from 2008-14, Skinner served as chair of the Natural Resources, Rules, and Budget committees. She authored dozens of laws, with energy-focused legislation that included an expansion of incentives for solar customers (AB 560)—and others that addressed energy storage (AB 2514) and building energy efficiency (AB 758, AB 1883). Skinner noted that the solar bill in particular sent a clear market signal about solar in California. “We’ve had great job growth in that industry.”

Skinner is a graduate of UC Berkeley, earning a bachelor’s of science degree from the College of Natural Resources and master’s degree in education.

Skinner said she is honored to be affiliated with UC Davis, joining researchers she has worked with and respected for years, including Lew Fulton, co-director of Sustainable Transportation Energy Pathways (STEPS), and Dan Sperling, director of ITS-Davis and faculty director for the Policy Institute. “You can’t interface in the transportation world and not be aware of Dan,” she said.

In welcoming Skinner, Sperling said: “We are thrilled to have Nancy Skinner join our team at UC Davis that is working toward a renewable and efficient energy future for California. Nancy’s impressive background in energy public policy will prove highly valuable for our collaborations with government and industry, as well as with our university partners.”

How do we move the nation toward a more sustainable transportation future? A new video spotlights the UC Davis-led National Center for Sustainable Transportation (NCST), one of five federally established University Transportation Centers helping the nation meet the “need for safe, efficient and environmentally sound movement of people and goods.”

The UC Davis Institute of Transportation Studies (ITS-Davis) was selected to lead the two-year, six university, $13 million research, education and outreach consortium for the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT). Other institutions partnering with ITS-Davis include: California State University, Long Beach; the University of California at Riverside; the University of Southern California; Georgia Tech, and the University of Vermont.

The goal of the National Center is to enhance the environmental sustainability of the United States’ transportation system through reduction in fossil fuel consumption and emissions. The National Center is addressing the U.S. DOT’s strategic goal to advance national environmentally sustainable policies and investments to reduce emissions from transportation systems while supporting climate adaptation activities and continued mitigation of air pollution and other environmental impacts. NCST is committed to delivering research that helps federal—as well as state, regional, and local agencies—identify and tackle the nation’s most pressing transportation issues.

In this new four-minute overview video of NCST, Center Director and UC Davis Environmental Science and Policy Professor Susan Handy notes that “the Institute of Transportation Studies here at UC Davis has been a leader in sustainable transportation research for more than two decades.”  She expresses her and UC Davis’ “excitement” at working with the NCST partner schools and describes the “cutting-edge” research that each of the six universities are bringing to the consortium.

In video’s second interview, NCST Co-Director and ITS-Davis Director Dan Sperling discusses the national need for an “economically, environmentally, and socially sustainable transportation system.” He focuses on NCST’s four main research areas: infrastructure, fuels and vehicles, land use and mobility, and policy Speaking to the issue of institutional change, Sperling asks: “How do we take all the research and make sure that it is impactful and used to influence decision making?”

The video’s concluding interview features California Energy Commission Commissioner and NCST Leadership Council member Janea Scott explains why academic institutions like NCST are vital to a state like California that is at the policy forefront.

“The relationship between government and academic institutions is incredibly important. It’s great to have [a center] like NCST to dig into to some of the data that is there to help us think through what types of data we do need to continue to inform our decisions. When academia and government work hand in hand we have a great opportunity to have really well informed policies with great data provided by academia,” said Commissioner Scott.

Click to view the video, “National Center for Sustainable Transportation: A Six-University Consortium.”

To learn more about NCST, visit http://ncst.ucdavis.edu/

The National Center is funded by the U.S. Department of Transportation along with the California Department of Transportation, the California Air Resources Board, the California Energy Commission, and through sources in the states of Georgia and Vermont.

What will the world’s energy mix look like in 2035?

A large contingent of ITS-Davis faculty, staff, researchers, and students gathered March 2 to hear Mark Finley, BP’s General Manager of Global Energy Markets and U.S. Economics, outline the company’s world energy predictions for the next 20 years in a special seminar hosted by UC Davis Sustainable Transportation Energy Pathways (STEPS).

Finley provided a forecast of world energy trends and policies, while also acknowledging market uncertainties. His presentation is based on BP’s Energy Outlook, a publication produced annually for the last 63 years that provides a statistical review of the world’s energy sources, and projections and models for those sources in the near future.

 “The review represents our best efforts to articulate what we think is the most likely trajectory for the world’s energy systems between now and 2035, taking into account the evolution of the world’s economy, and changes in the world’s technology and government policy,” said Finley.

Finley focused on analyzing the growth of the world’s economy and the shifts in global trade patterns. China is expected to continue its exponential growth of energy demand, representing the biggest national growth over the next 20 years, followed by Europe and North America. World energy demand will be strongest in Asia, which will account for more than 60 percent of global economic growth. Accompanying this trend is a reverse shift in  energy flow from West to East, due to the rise in the West of oil and natural gas production, improving energy efficiency and alternative and renewable energy sources— as well as slower income and vehicle growth.

The world’s energy mix is more diverse than it has ever been, and will continue to diversify over the next 20 years, Finley noted. Coal consumption is projected to continue slowing down, due to the availability of cheap natural gas and renewable energy, as well as policies toward reducing coal usage. While oil is expected to remain as the dominant primary energy source, BP predicts a steady loss of oil’s market share as renewables surpass nuclear and hydroelectric energy.

Shale gas production will continue to grow, especially in North America, with China becoming a significant production player. U.S. shale oil production is expected to grow as well, with the nation becoming an exporter of natural gas in 2016, and net oil exporter in 2031. Indeed, the U.S. is expected to become the world’s leading producer of liquid fuels, as well as the leading producer of natural gas.

The U.S. also is predicted to become energy self-sufficient by 2021, and, over the next 20 years, to become the global leader in energy production. The nation’s energy consumption is projected to increase by only one percent, whereas production will increase by 32 percent.

Finley cited two uncertainties in BP’s predictions:

• While China and India are predicted to see major Gross Domestic Product growth, a lower GDP scenario would result in a lesser demand for fuels, and a decrease in carbon emissions. (Even in this scenario, however, emissions would greatly exceed the levels needed to limit climate warming to limit climate warming to two degrees Celsius, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.)
• Climate policies could alter predictions, especially if policy makers adopt stronger policies to reduce emissions.

The talk quickly evolved from a traditional lecture to a lively discussion and Q&A, in which ITS-Davis professors, researchers and students posed questions about BP’s analysis process and the origins of the statistical review publication.

Finley concluded his presentation with three key takeaways:

• Continuous energy change is the norm for energy markets, with the growth in renewables and decline of coal and oil leading to a fast-changing energy mix
• Energy trade patterns are switching from West to East instead of the historic opposite
• Reducing carbon emissions will require action on many fronts, with no silver bullet to fix the problem

To learn more about BP and their statistical review, visit their website, or read the full report.

Mark Finley has spent more than 30 years in the public and private sector working as an energy economist. In 2001 he joined BP’s Economics team. He has served as the chairman of the U.S. Conference of Business Economics, chair of the American Petroleum Institute’s Committee on Economics and Statistics, vice president of the International Association of Energy Economics, and was a 2013 Senior Fellow of the U.S. Association for Energy Economics. He sits on the external advisory board of the University of Michigan Energy Institute, and is an elected member of the Council on Foreign Relations.

Photo credit: Gene Ang